วิกฤติอาร์เจนตินา ที่รัฐบาลผิดนัดชำระหนี้ /โดย ลงทุนแมน
พันธบัตรรัฐบาลดูเหมือนเป็นสินทรัพย์ที่ปราศจากความเสี่ยง (Risk-free asset)
แต่ในตอนนี้มีอยู่ประเทศหนึ่ง ที่รัฐบาลไม่สามารถหาเงินมาชำระหนี้ได้
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Continue ReadingThe Argentina crisis that the government defaults to pay debt / invest manly.
Government bonds seem like risk free assets (Risk-free asset)
But now there is one country where the government can't afford to pay the debt.
That country is Argentina
How does this come to be?
Investing man will tell you about it.
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If you want to know the way of the world economy, you need to understand
World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
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Year of July. Prof. 2010 Argentina's public debt is at 4.9 trillion baht.
Or about 44 % of GDP
Year of July. Prof. 2019 Argentina's public debt is at 11 trillion baht.
Or about 93 % of GDP
Increasing public debt is creating a heavy problem for Argentina now called Argentina the sick people of South America.
Some may not know that once in the early 20th century, Argentina was one of the world's most wealthy countries.
Because Argentina's farming industry is growing greatly from lands, fertile and climate suitable for agriculture sector.
This story is made in July. B.E. 1913 Argentina is addicted to 1 of the 10 countries with the world's highest population income.
However, time has passed 106 years
In the year. B.E. 2019 Argentina's per capita income falls to 66 of the world.
The beginning of economic fragility of a country is born from 2 main causes.
1. Political unrest, which comes from the Revolution of the military and corruption of cuddle Politicians.
2. Policy implementation of many leaders in the past who wanted to create a nationalist and bring in printing and budget spending, large amounts of balance.
When things are like this, it causes financial burden to the country.
Argentina has experienced various problems like a strong patient.
So how does this affect Argentina?
Year of July. Prof. 2019 The country's inflation rate is at 54 % highest in almost 30 years.
And the 5th highest in the world
During the year of July B.E. 2009-2019 Argentina has a budget deficit every year, making Argentina one of the world's longest budgeted countries.
The government's debt burden is increasingly composed to high-level inflation. This is why the Argentine peso goes down quickly.
If we exchanged $ 1 for Argentina pesos
Year of July. B.E. 2009 will exchange for 3.8 Argentina pesos
Year of July. B.E. 2019 will exchange for 60 Argentina pesos
The country's money is almost 1,480 % weaker. Many people may think that one side of peso money should help the export sector of the country, but it doesn't seem like much. Because today, the export sector is just 14 % of the country's exports. GDP value only
Peso's weakening of money makes the central bank have to use the reserve to keep the money from severely weakening.
But this has reduced the central bank reserve substantially from 2.1 trillion baht in July. B.E. 2018
Only 1.2 trillion baht left now.
Argentina needs help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worth over 1.8 trillion baht, which is the most critical country's subsidy in IMF history.
However, another bad joke is
Currently, the public debt burden that the Argentina government has is 80 % in foreign debt and most are in the picture of US dollars.
The weakness of Argentina peso compared to US dollars makes the country's debt increase because more Argentina peso is required to pay the same debt.
We can imagine that 10 years ago
If we owe $ 1
We will spend just 3.8 Argentina pesos to exchange $ 1 to pay back debt.
But come today, we're spending 60 Argentina pesos to exchange $ 1 to pay back debt.
This kind of thing has happened to Thailand in July. Prof. 1997 Many people remember that we need to spend 2 times more money to pay the same debt.
But Argentina is now not 2 times more debt, but ten times more debt..
The Argentina government currently has foreign debt for over 2 trillion baht and recently, the Argentina government has just defaulted to pay the debt (Default). Pay interest in stock loan amounts of over 16,000 million baht.
The government has previously negotiated restructuring debt with creditors to pay down interest and delay debt repayment, but it is rejected by creditors. Now the Argentine government needs to revisit the new offer to negotiate with creditors again.
Which now doesn't know what the final conclusion of this story will be.
But for sure, if the Argentina government can't afford to pay debt to the creditors, the story may be worse than we see now.
While Argentina's debts pay interest for the 9th Argentina in country history after Argentina has experienced total 8 moratorium defaults since Spain independence in July. Prof. 1816 or 204 years ago
This may be a lesson for many countries to learn things from countries that have experienced problems in order to avoid and not follow those countries.
Thailand now seems far from being Argentina
But be careful because everything, if careless, it can always happen..
╔═══════════╗
If you want to know the way of the world economy, you need to understand
World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
Order at (get 10 % discount from the cover price of 350 baht)
Lazada: https://www.lazada.co.th/products/1000-i714570154-s1368712682.html
Shopee: https://shopee.co.th/product/116732911/6716121161
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References
-https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/government-debt-to-gdp
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316929/national-debt-of-argentina-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316750/inflation-rate-in-argentina/
-https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-economy/argentinas-economic-crisis-explained-in-five-charts-idUSKCN1LD1S7
-https://www.ft.com/content/e6f5c436-37d2-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316916/argentinas-budget-balance-in-relation-to-gdp/
-https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49429361
-https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/argentinas-government-appears-set-to-default-citing-covid-19-pandemic.html
-https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/argentina-set-for-default-as-bondholders-reject-new-terms
-https://www.dw.com/en/argentina-in-default-for-second-time-this-century/a-53542302Translated
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